Congress and the White House have officially moved back the goalposts on the next coronavirus relief bill.
Angela Lang/CNETAs if the pressure to pass the next COVID-19 relief bill weren't already mounting just over a day before the election on Nov. 3, a new conflict is taking shape, one that has the potential to make an already acrid negotiation process even more bitter. On one side are those who would hurry a bill through by the end of 2020 and before the final threads of stimulus benefits run out. On the other are those who would wait until January 2021, two months away, to take up another bill.
As if to underscore the delay in passing more aid, Colorado will give a one-time $375 stimulus check to nearly everyone who claimed unemployment from March to October.
The blaze of opinions over the timeline for another stimulus package came during a week in which the US broke a single-day record of over 99,000 new coronavirus cases and increased hospitalizations.
"We probably need to do another package," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Friday. "I think that'll be something we'll need to do right at the beginning of the year." McConnell added his preference for a much narrower bill than the one currently under negotiation, and "certainly more modest than the $3 trillion dollar Nancy Pelosi package," he said, seeming to reference the House of Representatives' Heroes Act from May 15. On Oct. 1, the House passed a revised version of the bill for $2.2 trillion.
"We don't want to have to wait that long," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Friday. "People have needs."
McConnell's protracted timeline and smaller proposal is the Senate leader's latest break with President Donald Trump, who has loudly supported a sweeping bill that also includes a second stimulus check and renewed unemployment benefits, among other funding.
Read more: What's the path forward for America's economic recovery?
"We will have a tremendous stimulus package immediately after the election," Trump said Friday to reporters. Earlier in the week, Trump seemingly based his commitment on the condition that he'll win and that the House of Representatives and Senate have Republican majorities.
Former Vice President and presidential candidate Joe Biden -- who also has a stimulus plan -- is currently ahead in the polls, according to polling website FiveThirtyEight. (Note: Polls are one indicator, but they're not always an accurate reflection of future results.)
Watch this: Next stimulus checks: What to expect
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As Senate majority leader, McConnell has the power to set the agenda for when his chamber votes on legislation. He'll retain his position until at least Jan. 3, when Congress' new term kicks off. Though he's previously committed to bringing a deal to the Senate for a vote, Friday's statement hints that McConnell could delay a vote. A bill must pass both the Senate and House before the sitting president can sign it into law.
Even if McConnell didn't oppose the current $1.9 trillion stimulus package being hammered out by Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who represents the White House, passing a bill shortly after the election faces hurdles. Agreeing on a final bill is one of them. The transition to a new term of government is another.
Known as the "lame duck" period, the time between Nov. 4 and Jan. 19 is a notorious dead zone when it comes to passing new legislation, with the exception of emergency measures like avoiding a US government shutdown on Dec. 11.
"The motivation level on both sides will depend on how the election comes out, but I think either way we'll do something," Senate Republican Whip John Thune told The Hill. "The question is how much."
An earlier passage would mean Mnuchin could send the first stimulus checks within a week of a bill being signed into law, he said in August.
Read more: You don't have to be a US citizen living in America to get a stimulus check
COVID-19 aid is seen as necessary to help bolster an uncertain economy and help individual families prepare for a winter surge in cases that experts fear is coming. Without more federal stimulus aid, state budgets could fall short by as much as $434 billion through 2022, according to a report from Moody's Analytics.
What happens now? And how could it affect Americans and the economy? Here's what we know today. We update this story with new information when it's available.
Democrats and Republicans have disagreed on how much relief aid should be included in the stimulus package.
Sarah Tew/CNET4 things that could happen between election and inauguration
Here are some possible scenarios that could play out over the coming weeks.
A White House offer is completed after Nov. 3: An agreement is made and the current House and Senate vote. If Trump signs it into law, stimulus checks and other aid would likely begin to go out within weeks, with certain groups receiving financial help before the end of 2020.
A White House offer is finalized and fails in the Senate: In this situation, the House could vote on a deal after the election, but the current Senate, which is Republican-led, could vote it down, so the bill would not become law. In this case, Congress might try again after the next members of the House of Representatives and Senate convene on Jan. 3, 2021.
Some funding could be included in a bill that also funds the government past Dec 11: It's possible that one piece of funding, for example a stimulus check, unemployment aid or an extension of the eviction stay, could make it into a bill to keep the government funded past Dec. 11 and avoid a shutdown.
Talks stop until after the election results are in: If talks grind to a halt after the election, it's likely they'll restart in some capacity after the inauguration in January. It's been speculated that if Trump loses the election and if the Republican party loses its Senate majority, there will be little incentive for Congress to pass a sweeping package until 2021 during the transition.
To help visualize when a bill could pass, we've come up with five possible dates, both before and after the November election. If a bill does pass that includes a direct payment, here's how quickly we think the IRS could send a second stimulus check.
When could a stimulus bill or package pass?
| House votes | Senate votes | President signs |
|---|---|---|
| Nov. 9 (Senate back from recess) |
Nov. 10 (If House returns early from recess) | Nov. 12 (Nov. 11 is Veteran's Day) |
| Nov. 16 (House back in session) | Nov. 17 |
Nov. 18 |
| Nov. 23 |
Nov. 24 |
Nov. 25 |
| Dec. 11 | Dec. 12 | Dec. 13 |
| Feb. 1, 2021 | Feb. 2, 2021 | Feb. 3, 2021 |
How the House's stimulus bill from early October plays a role
On Oct. 1, the House of Representatives passed a revised Heroes Act that includes a second stimulus check and additional benefits such as enhanced unemployment benefits for tens of millions of Americans. The new House bill, endorsed primarily by Democrats, was not expected to advance through the Republican-controlled Senate, and indeed has not.
However, it provides the framework Pelosi is working from, and could figure into future negotiations, depending on election results that could potentially shift the balance one way or another.
The vote was thought to provide cover for House Democrats as they campaign without a new relief bill, much as the Senate did earlier in September for Republican members with its $650 billion skinny bill.
What do Democrats and Republicans agree on?
Proposals from both sides have included another stimulus payment of up to $1,200 for individuals who meet the requirements, among topics like aid for airlines, enhanced unemployment insurance and extending the Paycheck Protection Program for businesses.
Although the Senate's targeted bills, which did not advance, did not include stimulus checks, Republicans (including those in the Senate) have supported them.
Here are more details on the biggest points of contention between the White House Republicans and the Democrats.
For more information about stimulus checks, here's how soon you might get your second stimulus check now and what to know about the HEALS, CARES and Heroes stimulus bill proposals that could help inform a final package.
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